If the presidential vote results in a landslide victory for Fernandez, the new president will be in a relatively stable political position — especially if his Peronista party wins control of at least one of the two chambers of Argentina's Congress in concurrent legislative elections. But Argentina's deepening financial crisis will likely cut his honeymoon short, as he'll face massive pressure from all sectors of Argentine society — from trade unions to business organizations — to resurrect the country's economy as promised.
History has shown that high levels of popular support in Argentine politics can just as easily turn into widespread discontent and, in turn, social unrest. Argentina's return to populism is more likely than ever, as Macri struggles to keep his country's economy - and political future - from collapse in the coming weeks. In addition to grappling with Argentina's daunting economic downturn, Fernandez will also be tasked with balancing the moderate and populist factions within his Peronista party.
Former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who heads the more populist faction of the party, is running as Fernandez's vice-presidential candidate. She will also likely seek to appoint loyalists to other powerful positions.
- Argentine Foreign Policy Under the Kirchners: Ideological, Pragmatic, or Simply Peronist?.
- The Resurrection of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
- BTI : Argentina Country Report?
But the more the new president seeks to assert his authority on government affairs by reducing that of Fernandez de Kirchner's, the more likely it is that the two leaders and their respective party factions will clash — creating instability at the highest levels of Argentina's government. From a foreign policy perspective, a government led by Fernandez would put into question the continuity of the free trade agreement recently concluded between the European Union and South America's trade bloc, Mercosur.
- Latin America since the mid-20th century.
- Political Outline;
- Accessibility tools;
- Argentina election raises doubts about Trump’s bet on right-wing leaders?
Fernandez is opposed to the deal, which the Argentine parliament has yet to ratify — increasing the likelihood that his government may decide to scrap the deal. A Fernandez victory also risks renewing tensions between Argentina and Brazil , especially when it comes to trade. This is not a decision that Bolsonaro will take lightly, given that Argentina is Brazil's third-largest export destination.
But that may very well be where Argentina is headed next, as Macri struggles to keep his country's economy — and his political future — from collapsing under his feet. To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment. Sign In. Situation Reports. Analyses Assessments Snapshots Columns.
Media Graphics Podcasts Videos. Read This First — Starting Dec. Email Email this article.
Argentina's worsening financial crisis has increased the chances that a protectionist opposition government will successfully unseat President Mauricio Macri's pro-business administration in the country's Oct. To prevent capital flight amid the peso's slide, the Argentine government may tighten currency controls in the weeks leading up to the election, a measure that would likely remain in place after the vote. The Big Picture. See Economics See Politics.
Fernández planning simultaneous debt talk with IMF and private bondholders
A Brief Reprieve If the presidential vote results in a landslide victory for Fernandez, the new president will be in a relatively stable political position — especially if his Peronista party wins control of at least one of the two chambers of Argentina's Congress in concurrent legislative elections. At its height, the Lima Group represented rare unity in the region against Maduro, but that has waned. The problem for Trump is that so many of those governments who, for whatever reason, have been most enthusiastically supportive, now find themselves in political jeopardy. Bolsonaro pledged help with Venezuela and to build a close relationship with Washington after years of leftist leadership.ns1.rootguards.com/in-the-shadow-of-spengler.php
Why confidence in Argentina's economy is dwindling - BBC News
But barely nine months into his term, Bolsonaro has angered much of the rest of the world for his handling of fierce fires cutting through vast Amazon rainforests. Ivan Duque, the president of Colombia, is another leader whose relationship with the Trump administration has warmed since he came to office. Duque is also a point man on the fight against Maduro.
Sullivan and Ivanka Trump, who were on a three-nation South America trip, also stopped in Bogota, where Duque hosted them to a lavish dinner at the presidential palace.
Why confidence in Argentina's economy is dwindling
Both Americans bestowed admiring praise on Duque. At the same time, he was receiving sharp criticism from the United Nations and others for what they said is his sabotage of the landmark peace deal that ended decades of war with leftist guerrillas. Duque, who opposes parts of the accord, has underfunded many of its provisions that would incorporate the former rebels back into society, critics say, pushing some to announce a return to armed conflict.
The U. The two were among a handful of world leaders who voted with the United States in the U. In return, the administration stayed silent while Morales effectively dismantled a highly regarded anti-corruption agency — praised the world over including by earlier U.
Hernandez has been warmly welcomed in the White House, among Republicans in Congress and in other conservative circles.
Hernandez has denied the charges. About Us.
Brand Publishing. Times News Platforms. Real Estate. Facebook Twitter Show more sharing options Share Close extra sharing options.
Related Argentina: Political and Economic Conditions and U.S. Relations
Copyright 2019 - All Right Reserved